Essendon vs Fremantle - Tips, Odds & Analysis

📅 Sunday 17 May 2026 🕐 1:10 PM AEST 🏘 MCG, Melbourne

Short Answer

Fremantle are 2nd on the ladder on an 8-game winning streak against Essendon who have just 1 win in 2026. Line bet Fremantle -34.5, player pick Zach Merrett 30+ disposals at $2.10.

Key Findings

→Fremantle's 8-game winning streak is their longest since 2015 - they are in exceptional form
→Essendon have won just 1 game in 2026 and struggle badly away from Docklands
→Zach Merrett averages 26+ disposals and typically accumulates MORE in losing games
→$2.10 for Merrett 30+ disposals is genuine value for an elite accumulator
→Freo's defensive record is the best in the competition - Essendon will struggle to score

Jake Morrison - AFL Tipster, PuntGuide

Jake is a lifelong AFL fan and dedicated tipster who has been covering the game for PuntGuide since 2023. He specialises in line markets and player specials across all 18 clubs. Published Sunday 17 May 2026.

Match Overview

This should be a massive Fremantle win. The Dockers are genuine premiership contenders playing an Essendon side that has barely been competitive in 2026. The 34.5-point line is significant but Freo have won by 50+ multiple times against comparable opposition. Zach Merrett is the Essendon captain and he accumulates regardless of scoreline - making him a safe individual play even in a big loss.

Essendon

WLLLL

Last 5: WLLLL

Essendon are 17th on the ladder with just 4 points - one win all season. They are at the MCG (away from Docklands) and their form shows they have no answers for quality opposition. Zach Merrett is the one player who accumulates regardless of team performance.

Fremantle

WWWWW

Last 5: WWWWW

Fremantle are 2nd on the ladder with a remarkable 8-game winning streak - their longest since 2015. Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young drive the midfield, their defence concedes the fewest points in the competition, and their attack scores 94 points per game.

Fremantle have won 6 of the last 8 meetings. This is only the second time these teams have met at the MCG since 1999.

Our Tips for Essendon vs Fremantle

⭐ Line Bet

Fremantle -34.5

Freo are 2nd on the ladder on an 8-game winning streak vs Essendon 17th with 1 win. The Dockers have won by 50+ this season - 34.5 is a manageable ask.

Bet at BetRight → Compare all bookmakers

🔥 Player Special

Zach Merrett 30+ disposals $2.10

The Essendon captain averages 26+ disposals per game and will accumulate regardless of the scoreline. In losing performances he often accumulates even more. $2.10 for 30+ is solid value.

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Tips are editorial predictions only. Odds correct at time of publishing - always confirm before placing. Gamble responsibly. 18+

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Frequently Asked Questions

Fremantle -34.5. The Dockers need to win by 35 or more. Given Freo's form and Essendon's struggles, this is achievable.

Yes - Merrett is an elite accumulator who averages 26+ per game. In games where Essendon lose heavily, Merrett often has his highest disposal tallies as he becomes a primary ball-user.

Essendon's home games are split between Marvel Stadium and the MCG. This game is scheduled for the MCG - only the second meeting at the MCG since 1999.

BetRight and Betr have excellent player disposal markets. See our best bookmakers for AFL for the full comparison.