AFL · Round 10 · 14–17 May 2026
AFL Round 10 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
Short Answer
Our AFL Round 10 best bets target line markets with a clear edge, plus a mix of goalscorer and disposals player picks. Headlined by Brisbane Lions v Geelong at the Gabba on Thursday night -- both teams on 24 points, Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals at $2.20 is our value play. All picks are based on confirmed team lists and current form data.
Key Findings
- →Lions and Geelong meet in the marquee Thursday night clash -- both on 24 points, fourth and fifth on the ladder.
- →Jeremy Cameron had an off week last round and is a genuine 3+ goals proposition at $2.20 -- the bounce-back profile is strong.
- →Player picks this round mix goalscorer and disposals markets -- disposals offer more consistent value for elite midfielders.
- →All player selections verified against confirmed team lists. Compare Bet365, Sportsbet and TAB for best prices on disposals markets.
By PuntGuide Editorial · Updated 14 May 2026 · All tips are independent
Nine AFL games across four days -- headlined by the Gabba blockbuster between Brisbane Lions and Geelong on Thursday night. Sydney face Collingwood at the SCG, Hawthorn continue their strong season against Melbourne, and Fremantle look to maintain their surge at the top of the ladder.
Best Value Bet of the Round
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals - $2.20
Geelong forward · Off a quiet week last round · Gabba, Thursday night
All Round 10 Matches
Analysis
A top-five clash with both sides level on 24 points. The Gabba is one of the toughest away venues in the competition -- Brisbane have an exceptional home record and their forward line is dynamic. Geelong showed vulnerability last round but have the quality to stay in this. Lions cover the line at home, but it is closer than the 15.5-point gap suggests.
Key News
Lions: Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft anchor a dominant midfield. Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey provide the forward pressure.
Geelong: Patrick Dangerfield leads a class Cats midfield. Jeremy Cameron had a quiet game last round -- the bounce-back profile is compelling at $2.20 for 3+ goals.
Suggested Bets · Lions $1.45 · Geelong $2.80 · Line: Lions −15.5
Brisbane Lions −15.5 (line)Home fortress advantage at the Gabba -- Lions dominate at home
Bet Now →Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals $2.20 🔥 VALUECats forward off a quiet round -- strong bounce-back profile at this price
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Analysis
Sydney lead the competition at 8-1 with a 157.2% percentage. Collingwood are 10th at 4-4-1 and have been inconsistent. The Swans have been the most dominant team in the competition this season, regularly winning by 50+ points. At the SCG where they are almost unbeatable, this is a massive line but the data supports it.
Key News
Swans: Five straight wins, 1050 points scored this season. Form: WWWWW. The most complete team in the competition this year.
Collingwood: Form LWWDL. Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey provide class but the overall team structure has been inconsistent against top-half opposition.
Suggested Bets · Swans $1.14 · Collingwood $5.75 · Line: Swans −35.5
Sydney Swans −35.5 (line)Leaders at home vs inconsistent Pies -- Swans scoring 116 points per game this season
Bet Now →Isaac Heeney 2+ goalsSwans forward -- regularly hits his numbers when Sydney dominate possession
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Analysis
Gold Coast are 6th on the ladder (24pts) against a Port Adelaide side that has slumped to 14th (12pts). The Suns are strong at home and Port have lost their last two. A 26.5-point line is manageable for a Gold Coast side in form against a Port team struggling for consistency.
Key News
Gold Coast: Form LWLWW. Noah Anderson and Touk Miller dominate midfield when the Suns are clicking.
Port Adelaide: Form LLWLL. Zak Butters leads their midfield but Port have struggled to win away from Adelaide Oval this season.
Suggested Bets · Suns $1.23 · Port $4.20 · Line: Suns −26.5
Gold Coast SUNS −26.5 (line)Home advantage at People First Stadium vs struggling Port Adelaide
Bet Now →Touk Miller 25+ disposals $1.83Suns co-captain in Darwin heat -- 25+ is the realistic threshold, $1.83 is solid value
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Analysis
Adelaide are 8th (20pts) at home against North Melbourne who are 12th (16pts). Crows have won four of their last five and are strong at Adelaide Oval. North have lost four straight. This should be comfortable territory for Adelaide to cover.
Key News
Adelaide: Form WWLWW. Rory Laird provides elite defensive spread and disposal accumulation from half-back. Ben Keays drives the midfield.
North Melbourne: Form LWLLL. Struggling for consistency without their best forward combination.
Suggested Bets · Crows $1.38 · North $3.06 · Line: Crows −17.5
Adelaide Crows −17.5 (line)Crows at home vs North in four-loss skid -- Adelaide Oval is a fortress
Bet Now →Rory Laird 25+ disposals $2.20Adelaide half-back -- 25+ is a well-supported threshold for one of the competition's most consistent disposal players
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Analysis
Hawthorn are third on the ladder (26pts) and heavy favourites at -16.5 but this is at the MCG where Melbourne thrive. The Dees are seventh (24pts) and only narrowly behind the Hawks. Backing Melbourne at home with a 16.5-point head start is genuine value -- the MCG is Melbourne's fortress and this is a closer contest than the line suggests.
Key News
Melbourne: At their spiritual home at the MCG. Form LWWLW. Jack Viney anchors Melbourne's midfield. Karl Amon has had 30+ disposals in each of his last three games for the Hawks.
Hawthorn: Form WWWDL. Lost last round, coming off a draw before that. Strong season but conceding 16.5 points on the road at the MCG is a big ask.
Suggested Bets · Melbourne $2.90 · Hawthorn $1.42 · Line: Hawthorn −16.5
Melbourne +16.5 (line)MCG home fortress -- backing Dees to keep it within 16 points at their spiritual home
Bet Now →Karl Amon 25+ disposals $1.90Hawthorn midfielder -- 30+ disposals in each of his last 3 games, 25+ is a high-confidence line
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Analysis
Western Bulldogs are ninth (20pts) vs Carlton who are 16th with just 4 points. Carlton have lost eight straight and their percentage (79.3%) reflects the damage. The Bulldogs bounce-back after a good win last round -- 11.5 points is a manageable line against a side this depleted.
Key News
Western Bulldogs: Form LLLLW. Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar provide the midfield engine when the Dogs are on.
Carlton: Form LLLLL. Michael Voss resigned this week -- the Blues are in rebuild mode. Five straight losses, lowest percentage outside the wooden spooner contenders. New coaching energy could add unpredictability as a danger game.
Suggested Bets · Carlton $2.45 · Bulldogs $1.55 · Line: Bulldogs −11.5
Western Bulldogs −11.5 (line)Dogs vs bottom-two Carlton -- 11.5 is a manageable line for a quality side
Bet Now →Patrick Cripps 30+ disposals $3.25Carlton captain -- always hits his numbers regardless of team result, $3.25 is excellent value
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Analysis
Fremantle are second on the ladder (32pts) on an eight-game winning streak -- their longest since 2015 and the best defensive record in the competition. Essendon are 17th (4pts) with form WLLLL. The 34.5-point line is significant but Freo have won by 50+ multiple times this season against comparable opposition.
Key News
Fremantle: Form WWWWW. Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young provide the midfield engine. Attack scoring 94 points per game.
Essendon: Form WLLLL. One win this season, struggling away from Marvel. Zach Merrett is the standout individual play -- he averages 26+ disposals and will accumulate regardless of scoreline.
Suggested Bets · Essendon $5.75 · Freo $1.14 · Line: Fremantle −34.5 · Merrett 30+ $2.10
Fremantle −34.5 (line)Freo dominant on 5-game winning streak vs 17th-placed Essendon
Bet Now →Zach Merrett 30+ disposals $2.10Essendon captain -- averages 26+ disposals and has hit 30+ multiple times this season, $2.10 is solid value
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Analysis
Richmond are 18th and winless (0-9), having conceded 969 points this season -- 108 per game on average. St Kilda at -40.5 is a large line for a team ranked 11th, but Richmond are genuinely the worst side in the competition and have been competitive in almost no games this year. The Saints should win this comfortably.
Key News
St Kilda: Form WLWWL. Sam Flanders and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera provide run from the middle.
Richmond: Form LLLWL. One win all season. 584 points scored vs 969 conceded. Jack Ross is their standout accumulator -- 25+ disposals in each of his last 4 games and should rack up plenty in a free-flowing game.
Suggested Bets · St Kilda $1.10 · Richmond $7.00 · Line: St Kilda −40.5
St Kilda −40.5 (line)Richmond 0-9 and conceding 108 per game -- Saints should cover the big line
Bet Now →Jack Ross 25+ disposals $1.80Richmond midfielder -- 25+ disposals in each of his last 4 games, $1.80 is solid value for a player in this form
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Analysis
GWS are 13th (16pts) with form WLWLW vs West Coast who are 15th (8pts) and winless in their last five. The Giants away at Optus Stadium is tough, but they have the class to cover against a West Coast side that has conceded 1038 points this season -- 115 per game. GWS should win comfortably despite the travel.
Key News
GWS: Form WLWLW. Toby Greene leads the attack and is in strong goalscoring form against bottom-of-the-table opposition.
West Coast: Form LLLLL. 2-7 record, 624 points scored vs 1038 conceded. Struggling to contain quality forwards this season.
Suggested Bets · West Coast $4.60 · GWS $1.20 · Line: GWS −29.5
GWS GIANTS −29.5 (line)Giants have the class to cover vs winless West Coast who concede 115 per game
Bet Now →Toby Greene 2+ goals $1.90GWS captain -- class forward against a West Coast side conceding 115 points per game, $1.90 is great value
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Tips are editorial opinions only. All player picks are based on confirmed team lists. PuntGuide earns commissions from affiliate links - this does not influence our recommendations.
