AFL · Round 9 · 7–10 May 2026
AFL Round 9 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
Short Answer
Our AFL Round 9 best bets focus on line and margin markets where form data shows a clear edge, plus one player goalscorer bet per match where the price exceeds expected probability. All picks are based on current season form, H2H records and venue factors.
Key Findings
- →Line bets are selected where at least 3 of 6 statistical signals align: season form, recent form, H2H, venue, position matchup and opposition defence.
- →Player goalscorer picks use 2+ or 3+ goals markets only -- 1-goal markets rarely offer value at current odds.
- →All player picks are cross-referenced against confirmed team lists -- no selections are made on unconfirmed availability.
- →Check TAB, Sportsbet and Bet365 for best price -- goalscorer odds vary by up to 20% across bookmakers on the same player.
- →Round 9 fixtures include key interstate clashes -- travel and turnaround time factor into our line selections.
By PuntGuide Editorial · Updated 5 May 2026 · All tips are independent
Nine AFL games across four days - Thursday through Sunday - headlined by the Fremantle v Hawthorn top-of-the-table clash at Optus Stadium and Geelong v Collingwood in a classic MCG rivalry clash. Sydney look to extend their lead while Richmond host Adelaide fresh off snapping a 12-match losing streak.
Match of the Round
Geelong v Collingwood - MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Our tip: Geelong Cats · Tom Stewart's 200th game · Collingwood at $2.50 is value
All Round 9 Matches
Analysis
Fremantle have won seven consecutive games for the first time under Justin Longmuir and are humming - scoring triple figures in five of eight matches while holding the stingiest defence in the competition. Hawthorn drew with Collingwood but dominated general play and arrived here having won only once in their past eight meetings with the Dockers. Home advantage at Optus Stadium is significant.
Key News
Freo: Hayden Young building form - 20 disposals and 2 goals vs Bulldogs
Hawks: Connor Macdonald career-high 28 disposals, 3 goals in the draw
Freo: Attack humming - five 100+ point hauls in 8 games
H2H: Hawthorn have won just 1 of last 8 meetings
Suggested Bets · Fremantle $1.80 · Hawthorn $2.05
Fremantle (line)In form at Optus Stadium - Hawks have won just 1 of last 8 here
Bet Now →Patrick Voss 2+ goals ($2.00)Freo forward in form - ideal home conditions at Optus Stadium
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Analysis
Two-time reigning premiers Brisbane flexed their muscles against Essendon and have moved into the top four for the first time this season. Carlton are stuck in a dire rut - seven straight defeats, repeatedly leading at half-time then fading in the second half. The Blues have conceded six or more straight goals on six occasions this season. Brisbane to win and boost their percentage.
Key News
Lions: Hugh McCluggage returning to best - 25 disposals, 9 clearances vs Bombers
Blues: 1-7, have led at half-time in 6 of their 7 losses
Blues: Nic Newman one of the few Blues shining this season
Lions: Two-time reigning premiers pacing themselves but need wins
Suggested Bets · Brisbane Lions $1.10 · Carlton $7.50
Brisbane Lions by 40+Carlton's second-half fade is a consistent pattern this season
Bet Now →Charlie Cameron 2+ goalsLions' most consistent scorer vs a leaky Blues defence
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Analysis
The Western Bulldogs are slight favourites at $1.85 and showed they can challenge top-six sides by pushing Fremantle to the wire last round. Port's improved form has come with better defensive structure under Josh Carr but they struggle to put teams away when they have the chance. The Bulldogs have beaten Port by 90 in their last meeting and will look to get back on track after four straight losses to top-six sides.
Key News
Dogs: Matthew Kennedy career-highs 26.8 disposals and 7.4 clearances
Port: Zak Butters averaging career-high 30.6 disposals as stand-in skipper
H2H: Dogs beat Port by 90 points in R8 2025
Port: Better defensive steel under Carr but can't close games out
Suggested Bets · Port Adelaide $2.00 · Western Bulldogs $1.85
Western Bulldogs (line)Slight market favourites - beat Port by 90 in their last meeting
Bet Now →Marcus Bontempelli 2+ goalsDogs' skipper can find the goals when Darcy is unavailable
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Analysis
Sydney are 7-1 and ladder leaders with few chinks in their armour - they held Melbourne at arm's length in a rollicking clash last round. Malcolm Rosas jnr kicked seven goals against the Demons and the Swans have had a stranglehold over North Melbourne since 2018. North showed growth pushing Geelong for a half before a final-term collapse but face a massive step-up here.
Key News
Swans: Malcolm Rosas jnr 7 goals vs Melbourne - electric form
Swans: Sydney have dominated North since 2018
Roos: Luke Parker averaging 24.8 disposals in strong defensive half-back role
Swans: Few weaknesses - attack, defence, midfield all clicking
Suggested Bets · North Melbourne $4.00 · Sydney Swans $1.25
Sydney Swans by 40+North's ceiling against Sydney has a hard cap in recent years
Bet Now →Malcolm Rosas jnr 2+ goalsSeven goals last week - in the form of his career
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Analysis
Two sides in the bottom half needing a win. GWS paid for a slow start and wayward kicking in the wet against Gold Coast but had no such excuse and are massive $1.10 favourites at home. Essendon were outclassed by Brisbane and showed a concerning lack of defensive pressure - allowing 141 uncontested marks. A GWS win is expected though the margin could be tight if the Giants are slow to start again.
Key News
GWS: Jayden Laverde quietly excellent after moving from Essendon
Bombers: Sam Durham reaches 100 games - 27 disposals vs Lions
Bombers: 1-7, conceded 141 to 70 uncontested marks vs Brisbane
GWS: Need consecutive wins after slow-start loss to Gold Coast
Suggested Bets · GWS GIANTS $1.10 · Essendon $7.00
GWS GIANTS by 1–39Margin bet covers the risk if Giants start slowly again
Bet Now →Toby Greene 2+ goalsGWS captain lifts for big home games - Essendon defence leaks
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Analysis
Gold Coast's home away from home - they have won eight in a row at TIO Stadium by an average of 39 points. The Suns delivered their most convincing performance in months against GWS and have real momentum. St Kilda have shown they can beat the lesser lights but need to take a first scalp against a side currently above them. The venue and the Suns' form makes this hard to go against Gold Coast.
Key News
Suns: 8 consecutive wins at TIO Stadium by average 39 points
Suns: John Noble 35 disposals, 8 rebounds - career-high 25.8 per game
Saints: Sam Flanders faces former club - a point to prove
Saints: Showed strong form beating West Coast and Carlton but this is a step up
Suggested Bets · Gold Coast SUNS $1.45 · St Kilda $2.90
Suns by 20+39-point average win at TIO - a genuine home fortress
Bet Now →Ben King 3+ goals ($1.55)Suns' key forward - TIO fortress sets up a big haul in Darwin
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Analysis
Match of the round. Geelong are $1.50 favourites at the MCG and have won five of their past seven clashes with the Magpies. The Cats blew away North Melbourne and are building form. Collingwood's gutsy draw against Hawthorn was arguably their best performance of the season but they are yet to beat a side sitting above them. Tom Stewart reaches 200 games, Lipinski reaches 150 - big milestone game for the Pies.
Key News
Cats: Tom Stewart 200-game milestone - averaging 7.4 intercepts per game
Pies: Patrick Lipinski 150 games - led charge vs Hawks' midfield
Geelong: 5-3 in last 7 meetings with Collingwood by average 10 points - tight series
Pies: Yet to beat a top-8 side in 2026 despite impressive performances
Suggested Bets · Geelong Cats $1.50 · Collingwood $2.50
Geelong Cats (line)Home at MCG, recent H2H edge - Pies yet to beat a top-8 side
Bet Now →Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals ($2.00)Cats' key forward - MCG suits his marking game in a big rivalry clash
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Analysis
Melbourne are in a surprise push for finals and cannot afford to slip up against the struggling Eagles. West Coast hit a new low last round - failing to outscore Richmond in either of the first two quarters before mounting a late challenge. Club-record 19 'losing' quarters in a row tells the story. Melbourne stayed with Sydney until deep in the final quarter last round and are in genuine form.
Key News
Melbourne: Stayed with ladder-leaders Sydney deep into Q4 last week
Eagles: Club record 19 consecutive 'losing' quarters entering this game
Eagles: Liam Baker co-captain in his first year trying to lift a struggling side
Dees: Harry Sharp averaging 4.6 inside 50s - improving wing presence
Suggested Bets · Melbourne $1.10 · West Coast Eagles $7.00
Melbourne by 40+Eagles have been historically poor defensively all season
Bet Now →Kysaiah Pickett 2+ goals ($1.50)Dees' electric small forward - Eagles' defence can't handle his pace
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Analysis
Richmond snapped a 287-day and 12-match horror losing streak against West Coast last round - a genuine moment for their rebuild. But they face an Adelaide side that has won four of the past six meetings and is improving each week. The Crows snatched a memorable Showdown win over Port in a game decided by less than a goal. Sam Cumming is an exciting glimpse of Richmond's future but the Crows should have too much class.
Key News
Tigers: Sam Cumming - 18-year-old starring in just his second game
Crows: Sam Berry leading the competition with 64 tackles in 8 games
Tigers: Snapped 12-match losing streak vs West Coast last week
Crows: Won 3 of last 4 at the MCG after snapping 10-match losing streak there
Suggested Bets · Richmond $5.80 · Adelaide Crows $1.15
Adelaide Crows by 20+Richmond still in rebuild - Crows have the class and experience
Bet Now →Izak Rankine 2+ goals ($1.80)Crows' dangerous forward - Richmond's defence still developing in rebuild
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Best Bookmakers for AFL Round 9
Sportsbet - widest AFL market, best same-game multis
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PointsBet - sharp AFL odds, PointsBetting on player stats
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betr - best same-game multi builder for AFL in Australia
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