NRL · Round 10 · 7–10 May 2026
NRL Round 10 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
Short Answer
Our NRL Round 10 best bets target line and handicap markets where the data edge is clearest, with one try-scorer or player special per match. Late team news is incorporated into all selections -- check this page on match day for any updated picks following late withdrawals.
Key Findings
- →Line selections require at least 3 of 6 signals to align before inclusion -- home ground, H2H, season form, recent form, opposition attack and defence.
- →Try-scorer picks focus on outside backs and edge forwards who consistently cross in high-scoring matchups.
- →Late changes are tracked and updated -- Dolphins line moved from -6.5 to -9.5 following confirmed team changes.
- →Best prices for NRL lines are typically found at BetRight, Sportsbet and Bet365 -- always compare before placing.
- →All tips are for informational purposes -- line markets move quickly and odds at time of reading may differ from selection prices.
By PuntGuide Editorial · Updated 5 May 2026 · Confirmed team lists · All tips are independent
Eight NRL games across four days - Thursday through Sunday - headlined by Taumalolo's record 295th game in Townsville, Ashton Ward's first start at halfback for the Rabbitohs, and Zane Harrison's NRL debut for the Titans against the Roosters. Warriors have the bye.
Match of the Round
Rabbitohs v Sharks - Accor Stadium, Saturday 5:30pm
Our tip: Rabbitohs −2.5 · Ashton Ward's halfback selection adds structure at home
All Round 10 Matches
Analysis
The Dolphins need a win to keep top-eight hopes alive and they have the home advantage at Suncorp. Kodi Nikorima and Jeremy Marshall-King named to return - Marshall-King fitness test is the key watch. The Bulldogs are in a real form slump (1 win from last 6) and Ciraldo has refused to shake up his spine despite the results. Dolphins to cover.
Key News
Dolphins: Marshall-King (knee) & Nikorima named to return
Dolphins: Max Plath in Origin-level form at hooker
Bulldogs: Mann (head) & Turpin (biceps) ruled out
Bulldogs: Spine unchanged despite form slump
Suggested Bets · Dolphins $1.50 · Bulldogs $2.60 · Line: Dolphins −6.5
Dolphins −6.5Best value - Bulldogs have no answers in attack
Bet Now →Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime try scorerThe Hammer is Dolphins' most dangerous attacking weapon
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Analysis
Mismatch of the round. Roosters are $1.15 with an 18.5-point line - the market has spoken. Josh Hannay makes the bold call to hand Zane Harrison his NRL debut at halfback against one of the competition's best defences. DCE, Walker, Tedesco and Robson are in great touch. Roosters to win easily - look for margin markets rather than H2H at $1.15.
Key News
Roosters: Cody Ramsey first NRL start since 2022 (Ulcerative Colitis comeback)
Roosters: Angus Crichton fitness watch (medial ligament)
Titans: Zane Harrison NRL debut at halfback
Titans: Jenson Taumoepeau also debuting on wing
Suggested Bets · Roosters $1.15 · Titans $6.00 · Line: Roosters −18.5
Roosters −18.5Mismatch - Titans debuting two players against a top defence
Bet Now →Daniel Tupou anytime try scorerRoosters' winger - reliable finisher when Roosters dominate field position
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Analysis
Jason Taumalolo plays his record 295th game as a Cowboy, surpassing Johnathan Thurston - and he'll want to mark it with a dominant performance at home. The Eels are without their starting hooker (Smith, sternum), have Volkman as a starting half after Pezet's suspension, and are in poor form. Cowboys at home - the line looks within reach.
Key News
Cowboys: Taumalolo record 295th game - surpasses Thurston
Cowboys: Nanai out (shoulder) - Origin blow for QLD
Eels: Ryley Smith out (sternum) - Da Silva starts at hooker
Eels: Pezet suspended - Volkman partners Moses
Suggested Bets · Cowboys $1.35 · Eels $3.30 · Line: Cowboys −10.5
Cowboys −10.5Eels structural issues make this coverable
Bet Now →Zac Laybutt anytime try scorerCowboys winger - gets more opportunity with Nanai out on the other flank
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Analysis
The winless Dragons welcome back Gutherson and Dylan Egan - positives, but not enough against a Knights side that just knocked off the in-form Rabbitohs. Holbrook has named the same side with Ponga, Best, Marzhew and Brown all clicking. WIN Stadium is always tough but the Knights' class should prevail.
Key News
Dragons: Gutherson returns (hamstring)
Dragons: Dylan Egan returns from ACL (NRL comeback)
Knights: Unchanged after beating Souths last week
Dragons: Winless in 2026 - 0 wins from 8 games
Suggested Bets · Knights $1.35 · Dragons $3.25 · Line: Knights −9.5
Newcastle Knights −9.5Dragons offer little attacking threat - winless all season
Bet Now →Greg Marzhew anytime try scorerKnights' explosive winger - in strong form this season
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Analysis
The game just got a lot more interesting. Latrell Mitchell is a late out for the Rabbitohs, adding to an already disrupted spine with Ashton Ward at halfback and Jye Gray ahead of Dufty at fullback. Three unresolved selection questions in one backline. The Sharks are unchanged and will fancy their chances against a depleted Souths. This one now leans Sharks.
Key News
Rabbitohs: Latrell Mitchell LATE OUT - major blow
Rabbitohs: Ashton Ward at halfback, Jye Gray at fullback - unsettled spine
Sharks: Unchanged - Ramien (knee) still sidelined
Line: Rabbitohs −2.5 - now leans Sharks with Mitchell out
Suggested Bets · Rabbitohs $1.66 · Sharks $2.23 · Line: Rabbitohs −2.5
Rabbitohs −2.5Back Souths at home - Ward's halfback selection adds structure
Bet Now →Alex Johnston anytime try scorerSouths' wing machine - consistently one of the NRL's best finishers
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Analysis
Fogarty returns from a groin injury to steady the Manly attack at their fortress 4 Pines Park. The Broncos have a major injury crisis - Reynolds (head knock), Staggs (suspension) and Mariner (leg) all out. Tom Duffy stepping in at halfback is a significant drop in quality. Manly to win and cover the tight line at home.
Key News
Sea Eagles: Jamal Fogarty returns (groin)
Sea Eagles: Bullemor promoted to prop (Hetherington - head)
Broncos: Adam Reynolds out (head knock)
Broncos: Staggs suspended, Mariner (leg) out - triple blow
Suggested Bets · Sea Eagles $1.70 · Broncos $2.15 · Line: Sea Eagles −2.5
Sea Eagles −2.5Manly at home vs depleted Broncos spine
Bet Now →Reuben Garrick anytime try scorerManly's reliable winger - Broncos' defence stretched thin by injuries
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Analysis
The Storm sit 16th but this is deceptive - Hughes returns from a head knock to partner Munster and Grant in a quality spine at AAMI Park. The Tigers have reshaped their backline with Mason at fullback and Jock Madden at halfback replacing the injured Doueihi (dislocated shoulder). Storm's class at home should see them cover.
Key News
Storm: Jahrome Hughes returns (head knock)
Storm: Wishart out (ankle) - lengthy spell expected
Tigers: Doueihi out (dislocated shoulder) - Madden starts
Tigers: Samuela Fainu out 12 weeks (foot) - Pearce-Paul back
Suggested Bets · Storm $1.62 · Tigers $2.30 · Line: Storm −4.5
Storm −4.5Quality spine vs inexperienced Tigers halves
Bet Now →Will Warbrick anytime try scorerStorm's most dynamic finisher - Tigers leak out wide
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Analysis
The Panthers are the competition's best side and arrive unchanged after beating the Sea Eagles. GIO Stadium is one of the NRL's tougher away venues and will make this closer than the $1.30 price suggests. Cleary, Edwards, Yeo and Papali'i are all operating at a high level. Back Panthers to win - the -9.5 line is too big to lay away from home.
Key News
Panthers: Same side - rolling after Sea Eagles win
Panthers: Cogger suspended - Jack Cole replaces
Raiders: Ethan Strange returns (ankle)
Raiders: Weekes at fullback, Laurie to bench
Suggested Bets · Panthers $1.30 · Raiders $3.55 · Line: Panthers −9.5
Panthers −9.5Best team in the comp - Cleary and Co. should dominate
Bet Now →Nathan Cleary anytime try scorerPanthers' halfback chips in regularly - good value at $2.50+
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