Brownlow Medal Odds 2026
Nick Daicos is the near-certain 2026 Brownlow Medal favourite at $1.14 - one of the shortest Brownlow favourites in market history - ahead of the count on Monday 21 September. Marcus Bontempelli is a distant second at $15.00. Jordan Dawson $23.00, Bailey Smith $26.00 and Isaac Heeney $46.00 complete the top 5. Full market and analysis below.
- →The Brownlow Medal is won by the player with the most umpire votes from the home-and-away season.
- →Only players who have not been suspended during the season are eligible for the count.
- →Midfielders win the Brownlow almost exclusively -- high-possession players who impact the score attract votes.
- →Odds tighten significantly from Round 15 onwards once form lines are clear -- early market value is highest.
- →Best prices on Brownlow futures are typically found at Bet365, Sportsbet and TAB.
Nick Daicos is the $1.14 near-certain favourite to finally win a Brownlow after back-to-back runner-up finishes. The gap to the field is enormous - Marcus Bontempelli next at $15.00, Jordan Dawson $23.00, Bailey Smith $26.00, Isaac Heeney $46.00.
Odds sourced from Sportsbet · Updated 3 August 2026 · Count: Monday 21 September 2026 · 18+ · Gamble responsibly
2026 Brownlow Medal Full Market
Odds sourced from Betr, 24 May 2026. Compare across bookmakers for best value.
| # | Player | Club | Odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos 🏆 | Collingwood | $1.14 | Bet Now |
| 2 | Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | $15.00 | Bet Now |
| 3 | Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | $23.00 | Bet Now |
| 4 | Bailey Smith | Geelong Cats | $26.00 | Bet Now |
| 5 | Isaac Heeney | Sydney Swans | $46.00 | Bet Now |
| 6 | Patrick Cripps | Carlton | $61.00 | Bet Now |
| 7 | Jai Newcombe | Hawthorn | $67.00 | Bet Now |
| 7 | Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | $67.00 | Bet Now |
| 9 | Luke Jackson | Fremantle | $76.00 | Bet Now |
| 10 | Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne | $81.00 | Bet Now |
| 11 | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda | $91.00 | Bet Now |
| 12 | Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 12 | Murphy Reid | Fremantle | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 12 | Will Ashcroft | Brisbane Lions | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 15 | Christian Petracca | Melbourne | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 15 | Clayton Oliver | Melbourne | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 15 | Luke Davies-Uniacke | North Melbourne | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Andrew Brayshaw | Fremantle | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Chad Warner | Sydney Swans | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Ed Richards | Western Bulldogs | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Max Gawn | Melbourne | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Nick Watson | Hawthorn | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Sam Walsh | Carlton | $251.00 | Bet Now |
| 18 | Shai Bolton | Fremantle | $251.00 | Bet Now |
Odds sourced from Betr, 24 May 2026. Correct at time of publication and subject to change. Compare across bookmakers before placing. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Top Contenders - Analysis
Smith has drifted from $4.00 favourite back to $26.00 as Daicos has surged all the way to $1.14. His move to Geelong reinvigorated his career but the market has abandoned him. At $26.00 he's a rank outsider who needs Daicos to have a genuine polling collapse to be paid.
Bontempelli has drifted to $15.00 - the only player realistically capable of catching Daicos. One of the great Brownlow nearly men who consistently polls without yet winning the medal his reputation demands. The Bulldogs captain brings every quality umpires admire: contested ball winning, clean disposal, four-quarter presence. At $15.00 he's the value hedge against a Daicos misfire.
Daicos has shortened all the way to $1.14 - one of the shortest Brownlow favourites in market history. Back-to-back runner-up finishes have the market absolutely convinced he finally gets over the line. Elite disposal efficiency, decision-making under pressure and the ability to accumulate against quality opposition remain his hallmark. At $1.14 he is treated as a formality by the market - the question isn't whether he wins, it's what the winning margin looks like.
Petracca's Brownlow credentials are beyond question — when fit and firing, he is one of the most dominant midfielders in the competition and umpires have recognised that with heavy voting in previous seasons. Now at Gold Coast, his chances depend heavily on whether the SUNS continue to challenge finals contenders in the second half of the season. If they do, Petracca will poll. At $10 he remains the most interesting speculative runner in the top five.
Butters has drifted slightly to $13 but remains one of the more underrated Brownlow contenders. Port Adelaide's dynamic midfielder has been polling consistently and his high-volume, high-efficiency disposal game is exactly what umpires vote for. Port's falling ladder position in 2026 is the concern — fewer meaningful wins means fewer high-vote opportunities. But Butters individually continues to perform, and at $13 there is value if Port can string together a finals run.
How the Brownlow Medal Works
The Brownlow Medal is awarded to the AFL's best and fairest player as voted by the field umpires. After every home and away game, the three field umpires each independently vote for the three best and fairest players - 3 votes for best, 2 for second, 1 for third.
Votes are kept secret throughout the season and revealed on Brownlow Medal night - held on the Monday before the AFL Grand Final each year. The player with the most votes wins. In the event of a tie, the medal is shared.
Key rule change in 2026: For the first time, umpires are permitted to access approved match statistics before casting their Brownlow votes - a significant shift that is expected to benefit players with elite output metrics like Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli.
Best Bookmakers for Brownlow Medal Betting
Compare odds across multiple accounts for the best value on the Brownlow winner market.
