FINAL teams confirmed (27 May): Mitchell Moses ruled out (hamstring). Ethan Strange (Raiders) starts at five-eighth on Origin debut; Matt Burton (Bulldogs) named at #19 on the bench. Lucas (NSW) and Finefeuiaki (QLD) dropped from extended squads. NSW $1.65 favourites, -2.5 handicap at $1.90, total 41.5 at $1.90 both ways. Our tips: NSW to win by 1–12 with Brian To’o, Kotoni Staggs and Kalyn Ponga to score tries.
Tips are editorial opinions only. Odds correct at time of publishing - always confirm before placing. Gamble responsibly. 18+
This is the most rebuilt NSW side in several years. Seven new faces, two players debuting under changed eligibility rules, and now a 48-hour halves reshuffle — Mitchell Moses ruled out with a hamstring strain, Ethan Strange thrown in at five-eighth for his Origin debut. Strange has trained with the Blues all week and Daley likes his strong running game (“at this level, if you’ve got a strong running game and you want to challenge the defence, you’ll do well”). Cleary now shoulders the senior playmaking load and will direct the game.
Queensland's settled spine is their biggest advantage. Ponga at fullback is electrifying and will be a constant threat from kick returns. Munster at six adds flair, Walker at halfback brings the organisation, and Harry Grant is arguably the best hooker in the NRL. The Maroons will target Strange on debut and force him into early decisions under pressure — expect Munster to run hard at the rookie five-eighth.
NSW's new-look forward pack with Fonua-Blake and the returning Isaah Yeo as captain is built for physicality. Victor Radley off the bench adds high-energy defence and carries, and Burton on the bench gives Daley a senior playmaker cover if Strange wears down. The question is whether the new combinations click in a first game together.
NSW have the individual talent across the park and the home advantage of Accor Stadium. The market reflects that — Blues at $1.65 favourites, -2.5 on the handicap, total at 41.5 either way. The 1–12 margin market suggests a game decided in the final 20 minutes by one or two plays.
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| NSW Blues to win | $1.65 |
| Queensland Maroons to win | $2.25 |
| NSW −2.5 (Handicap) | $1.90 |
| QLD +2.5 (Handicap) | $1.90 |
| NSW Margin 1–12 | $2.80 |
| NSW Margin 13+ | $3.50 |
| QLD Margin 1–12 | $3.85 |
| QLD Margin 13+ | $4.85 |
| Total Points Over 41.5 | $1.90 |
| Total Points Under 41.5 | $1.90 |
| Brian To’o | $2.00 |
| Tolutau Koula | $2.20 |
| James Tedesco | $2.60 |
| Kotoni Staggs | $2.85 |
| Stephen Crichton | $3.00 |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | $3.20 |
| Hudson Young | $3.25 |
| Nathan Cleary | $4.00 |
| Ethan Strange | $5.00 |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | $6.50 |
| Selwyn Cobbo | $2.30 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | $2.45 |
| Jojo Fifita | $2.50 |
| Kalyn Ponga | $3.25 |
| Robert Toia | $3.75 |
| Harry Grant | $4.50 |
| Sam Walker | $5.00 |
| Cameron Munster | $5.50 |
| Kurt Capewell | $6.00 |
| Reuben Cotter | $6.50 |
| Nathan Cleary | $5.00 |
| James Tedesco | $6.00 |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | $17.00 |
| Hudson Young | $19.00 |
| Ethan Strange | $19.00 |
| Isaah Yeo | $21.00 |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | $34.00 |
| Harry Grant | $13.00 |
| Kalyn Ponga | $13.00 |
| Cameron Munster | $15.00 |
| Sam Walker | $15.00 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | $26.00 |
| Max Plath | $26.00 |
| Tino Fa’asuamaleaui | $34.00 |
Odds from Sportsbet · Updated 26 May 2026 · Always confirm before placing · 18+ · Gamble responsibly
NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons · Accor Stadium, Sydney. Our tips: NSW to win by 1–12 · To'o, Staggs, Ponga to score tries · Featured promo: Any starting winger to score the first try at Betr $3.50 (max $40).
Tips are editorial opinions only. Always confirm odds before placing. Gamble responsibly. 18+ only.