⚡ State of Origin 2026 — Game 2 Result · Series: 1–1
Queensland
44
–
New South Wales
24
📅 Wednesday 17 June 2026🏘 MCG, Melbourne — 91,671QLD win — Series 1–1
Result
Queensland 44 — 24 NSW in front of 91,671 at the MCG. NSW led 12–8 at halftime but Queensland scored 36 points in the second half to run away with it. Selwyn Cobbo 3 tries. Series locked 1–1. Decider at Suncorp Stadium on 8 July 2026. Game 3 preview →
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PuntGuide Editorial
Independent tips and analysis for Australian punters. Published 30 May 2026 · Updated 14 June 2026 — McLean OUT, Nawaqanitawase debut, Moses confirmed.
Key Findings — Game 2 Preview
→NSW lead 1–0 — Tedesco’s stunning match-winning try (22–20) finished the Maroons after Queensland led by 14 in the first half. The most dramatic Game 1 in recent memory.
→🚨 LATE CHANGE — McLean OUT (quad strain) — Casey McLean suffered a quad strain on Saturday and is out. Tolu Koula moves to centre, Mark Nawaqanitawase promoted to debut on the wing. Jack Bostock (Dolphins) named as replacement bench player.
→Moses confirmed — Despite a limited training week, Moses took part in an opposed session Saturday and teammates say he is “very confident” he’ll play. Robson: “He’s definitely tracking along well.”
→Daley’s changes — Crichton OUT (AC joint), Moses IN at 6; Strange to bench; Payne Haas IN at prop; Dylan Lucas at edge; Api Koroisau in for Brailey.
→QLD recall Reece Walsh — Carrigan OUT (ankle), Walsh recalled to extended bench. Slater keeping Walsh’s role quiet — could go anywhere in the back line. Mam dropped entirely.
→NSW $1.79 H2H · QLD $2.07 — NSW favourites on series momentum at the neutral MCG. Margins: NSW 1–12 at $3.15, Under 43.5 total points $1.90 (4 of last 5 QLD-trailing Origin games went under).
→Nawaqanitawase anytime scorer — the Roosters winger is one of the most electric athletes in the NRL and makes his Origin debut on the wing. Debut wingers at Origin level consistently outperform their market price. Check Sportsbet for live price.
→Ponga at the MCG for redemption — sent off in Game 1, returns on the biggest Origin stage with something to prove. At $3.80 anytime try scorer, he’s our value pick.
NSW carry momentum from Game 1’s extraordinary 22–20 comeback. Mitchell Moses returns at six, adding genuine cohesion to the halves alongside Cleary. The MCG strips Queensland of any home-ground edge — the Maroons must overcome the series deficit, the loss of Carrigan and the weight of expectation on a neutral deck. NSW have already shown they can absorb pressure and strike late. Payne Haas at prop and Dylan Lucas at edge give Daley’s pack a different look.
Four of the last five State of Origin matches in which Queensland have been trailing in the series have gone UNDER the total match points line. Game 1 finished 22–20 (42 total). A desperate Queensland side under series pressure typically delivers a grinding, physical contest — not a free-flowing try-fest. $1.90 is genuine value for the under.
Game 1 finished 22–20 — a two-point margin. Game 2 at the MCG with Queensland desperate is unlikely to be a blowout. The 1–12 NSW margin at $3.15 reflects the likely pattern: a close, gritty contest decided late.
Making his Origin debut on the wing after Casey McLean’s late withdrawal. The Roosters flyer is one of the most electrifying athletes in the NRL — raw pace, freakish footwork and an ability to finish in tight spaces. Debut wingers at Origin consistently punch above their market price as defenders are unfamiliar with their patterns. Moses and Tedesco will find him early. Get on before the price firms.
🔥 Anytime Try Scorer — Best Pick
Brian To’o $2.00
NSW’s explosive right winger. Moses’s width-finding passing and Tedesco’s attacking game will create chances down that right edge all night. To’o is always first in line and at $2.00 is the play.
🔥 Anytime Try Scorer
Selwyn Cobbo $2.20
Queensland’s most dangerous winger. With the Maroons needing to score to stay in the series, Cobbo will get his chances on the wider edges of the MCG in front of a six-figure crowd. $2.20 is fair value.
🔥 Anytime Try Scorer — Value
Kalyn Ponga $3.80
Ponga returns at the MCG with a point to prove after his Game 1 send-off. At $3.80, a motivated Ponga on Origin’s biggest stage is serious value — fullbacks who attack the line are always live at Origin level.
Odds from Sportsbet · Correct at time of publishing — always confirm before placing · 18+ · Gamble responsibly
Team Lists
Updated 14 June. LATE CHANGE: McLean OUT (quad strain) — Nawaqanitawase debuts on wing, Koula to centre, Bostock onto bench. Moses confirmed to play. ★ = debut.
Kalyn Ponga sent off in Game 1 — back available, hungry for redemption
Ponga flew into Tolu Koula with a shoulder and head contact that the referee had no hesitation in judging a send-off. With Queensland reduced to 12 men, NSW came back to win. Ponga is available for Game 2 and will be desperate to make amends on the MCG’s biggest Origin stage — that motivation can be a powerful force. The Maroons need him at his devastating best.
Queensland must win · Series on the line
Queensland must win to stay alive — going 2–0 down is near impossible to recover from
No team has ever won a State of Origin series after losing the first two games. Queensland are not just playing for a Game 2 win at the MCG — they are playing for the series. That pressure on a neutral deck in front of a six-figure crowd can work both ways: it can lift them to something extraordinary, or the weight of expectation can flatten a side. The blow of losing Pat Carrigan (ankle) further complicates their forward depth. Finefeuiaki comes in, and Reece Walsh is recalled to the extended bench as a wildcard option.
QLD selection · Walsh recalled
Reece Walsh returns to the extended bench — Slater keeping his role a secret
Walsh missed Game 1 after Slater called him to say he hadn’t made it — Walsh later admitted he hadn’t been “living up to the standards it takes to wear that Queensland jersey.” His Broncos have lost five consecutive games and he was exposed in defence last weekend. Yet Slater has gambled on the livewire fullback anyway, keeping Walsh’s exact role a secret. He could play anywhere across the back line, could go to fullback if Ponga goes down, or could come off the bench as a game-changer. Mam was dropped entirely.
NSW halves · Moses in, Strange to bench
Daley recalls Moses — Strange drops to extended bench despite his Game 1 heroics
Daley made the call many thought was impossible — Moses returns at six and Strange is demoted to the extended bench. Strange scored a long-range try, played with enormous energy and deserved to keep his jersey. But Daley backed his experience. Strange remains in the squad as cover and could yet play a role off the bench. It’s a ruthless call, but Daley will back Moses to provide the control and kicking game that NSW need at the MCG.
NSW selection · Dylan Lucas surprise
Dylan Lucas gets the nod at edge — Olakau’atu demoted to 20th man
The biggest shock of selection week: Daley drops the form edge back rower of the competition — Haumole Olakau’atu — and hands a debut to Dylan Lucas. “He brings really good energy. Dylan is young, has plenty of speed, brings enthusiasm and has been waiting on his opportunity,” Daley said. It’s a gamble on youth in the biggest game of his life — but Daley clearly believes Lucas’s aggression and speed will trouble Queensland’s defence.
Tedesco · Match-winner
The Tedesco moment — one of Origin’s great tries
NSW trailed by 10 with 23 minutes to go. Strange scored to bring the margin to 4. Cleary kicked a 40/20 and then scored himself. Then Tedesco, seemingly from nowhere, flew through the air to put NSW in front. It was a try that will be replayed for decades — and it sets up the 2026 series beautifully. Queensland will be desperate to respond at the MCG.
Queensland spine · Game 1 form
Walker, Munster and Grant were outstanding — Walker’s grubber set the tone
Queensland dominated the first 60 minutes. Walker’s short kicking game was devastating early, putting Robert Toia over in the eighth minute. Harry Grant was scheming and conniving at hooker. Munster and Walker were creative and physical. The QLD spine did nothing wrong — a moment of recklessness from Ponga and a Tedesco miracle cost them. That spine is intact and will be hungry to make amends.
MCG showdown
100,000 at the ‘G — the biggest Origin stage of all
The MCG is the largest venue State of Origin can ever play in — capable of holding more than 100,000 people on the right night. It strips both sides of the home-ground edge they’d carry into Suncorp or Accor Stadium and replaces it with a Victorian crowd that wants a contest. NSW will need to weather Queensland’s early onslaught and use the wider edges of the ‘G to spread the Maroons defence. The side that handles the moment wins the game.
Match Analysis
Game 1 was a masterclass in Queensland dominance for 60 minutes and NSW resilience for the final 20. The Maroons had the better of the contest for the vast majority of the night — controlling field position, taking clear advantage of NSW errors, and scoring the old-fashioned way through structure and discipline. Robert Toia scored inside eight minutes off a Walker grubber; from there Queensland looked in complete control.
What changed the game was Ponga’s red card. Reduced to 12 men, Queensland could not hold off wave after wave of blue. Strange scored a long-range try. Cleary hit a 40/20 and then scored himself. And then Tedesco, in one of the great Origin moments, flew through the air and put NSW in front. It was a loss Queensland could not have anticipated — and a win NSW were fortunate to have.
For Game 2, Ponga is available and returns to the side with something to prove. A player of his talent who cost his team a match will come back with edge and desperation — on the MCG’s biggest Origin stage, that can be a dangerous combination for NSW. Billy Slater’s selection challenge is simpler: keep the same spine and back them to respond.
NSW, for all their Game 1 issues — Strange’s pass off the ground, Tedesco’s early dropped ball on the tryline, Crichton’s mixed night — are favourites at the MCG and rightfully so. Series momentum and the returning Moses make them hard to oppose. But a desperate Queensland side with a motivated Ponga on a neutral deck is never easy, and the Maroons’ spine of Walker, Munster and Grant will again be at the heart of everything.
Where to Bet on State of Origin
⭐ Best for Origin
Sportsbet
Deepest Origin markets — margins, try scorers, first try, player specials. NSW $1.78 H2H.
Odds from Sportsbet · Updated 9 June 2026 · Always confirm before placing · 18+ · Gamble responsibly
FAQs — State of Origin Game 2 2026
State of Origin Game 2 2026 is on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at 8:05 PM AEST at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne.
NSW won Game 1 in extraordinary fashion. Queensland dominated for 60 minutes and led by 10 points with 23 minutes to go. Kalyn Ponga was sent off for a head-high shot on Tolu Koula. With Queensland reduced to 12 men, Ethan Strange scored a long-range try, Nathan Cleary hit a 40/20 and scored, then James Tedesco scored the match-winning try to complete one of the great Origin comebacks.
Yes. Ponga is available and selected for Game 2 despite his send-off in Game 1 for a shoulder and head contact on Tolu Koula. He returns at the MCG looking to make amends and will be one of the most dangerous players on the park.
With Game 2 at the neutral MCG in Melbourne, NSW are favourites on the back of series momentum: $1.79 at Sportsbet. Queensland are $2.07. NSW’s 1–0 series lead and the Game 1 comeback have pushed them into clear favouritism.
Moses is fit to return after his Game 1 hamstring strain — but this is the biggest talking point of Game 2 week. Can Laurie Daley really drop Ethan Strange after his remarkable debut performance? Strange scored, ran hard and proved himself on the biggest stage. We don’t think Strange should be dropped — but time will tell.
Sportsbet has the deepest Origin markets including margins, try scorers and player specials. Betr has strong margin markets — NSW 1–12 at $3.15 is our margin play. See our best bookmakers for NRL guide.