AFL Rising Star Odds 2026
The AFL Rising Star award goes to the best first or second-year player in the competition as nominated by club coaches each round. The 2026 market is driven by early-season nominations -- players with 3+ nominations by mid-season are strong contenders. Best value is found in the first 4 rounds before the market establishes a favourite.
- →Rising Star nominees are named by club coaches each round -- tracking nominations is key to the market.
- →Players must be in their first or second year on an AFL list to be eligible.
- →Midfielders tend to dominate nominations due to their high-visibility impact -- forwards and defenders are often value.
- →Best prices are available pre-season and early rounds before a clear leader emerges from nominations.
- →Track the weekly nominee list via AFL.com.au and watch Sportsbet and Bet365 for price movement.
Willem Duursma is the $2.50 favourite after his Round 3 nomination. Jagga Smith at $4 and Cooper Trembath at $5 round out the top three. Full market, nominee history and contender analysis below.
Odds sourced from Sportsbet · Market settles 21 September 2026 · All-in betting · (Rn) = Round nominated · 18+ · Gamble responsibly
2026 AFL Rising Star Full Market
Odds sourced from Sportsbet. Market settles 21 September 2026. All-in. (Rn) = round of Rising Star nomination.
| # | Player | Nominated | Odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willem Duursma Port Adelaide | Round 3 | $2.50 | Bet Now |
| 2 | Jagga Smith AFL | Round 1 | $4.00 | Bet Now |
| 3 | Cooper Trembath AFL | Round 4 | $5.00 | Bet Now |
| 4 | Jacob Farrow AFL | Round 5 | $18.00 | Bet Now |
| 4 | Sam Grlj AFL | Round 7 | $18.00 | Bet Now |
| 6 | Jobe Shanahan AFL | Round 2 | $21.00 | Bet Now |
| 6 | Josh Lindsay AFL | Not yet nominated | $21.00 | Bet Now |
| 6 | Phoenix Gothard AFL | Round 6 | $21.00 | Bet Now |
| 9 | Zeke Uwland AFL | Not yet nominated | $26.00 | Bet Now |
| 10 | Dyson Sharp AFL | Not yet nominated | $41.00 | Bet Now |
| 11 | Latrelle Pickett AFL | Not yet nominated | $51.00 | Bet Now |
| 11 | Sullivan Robey AFL | Not yet nominated | $51.00 | Bet Now |
| 13 | Jack Whitlock AFL | Not yet nominated | $67.00 | Bet Now |
| 13 | Sam Cumming AFL | Not yet nominated | $67.00 | Bet Now |
| 15 | Patrick Retschko AFL | Not yet nominated | $81.00 | Bet Now |
| 15 | Zak Johnson AFL | Not yet nominated | $81.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Alix Tauru AFL | Not yet nominated | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Bo Allan AFL | Not yet nominated | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Harry Dean AFL | Not yet nominated | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Jordan Croft AFL | Not yet nominated | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Lachie Jaques AFL | Not yet nominated | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 17 | Leonardo Lombard AFL | OR | $101.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Cooper Duff-Tytler AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Cooper Hynes AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Dylan Patterson AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Lachy Dovaston AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Sid Draper AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
| 23 | Ty Gallop AFL | Not yet nominated | $151.00 | Bet Now |
Odds sourced from Sportsbet, correct at time of publication. All-in market. (OR) = other round nomination. Odds subject to change. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Top Contenders - Analysis
Duursma is the clear market leader at $2.50 and the early form of the 2026 Rising Star race. Receiving his nomination in Round 3 - early enough in the season to suggest sustained form - he has already made a significant impression on AFL observers. Port Adelaide's system is well-suited to developing young players quickly, giving them opportunities with ball in hand in space rather than being thrust into a contested-ball role before they're ready. The $2.50 is short but reflects a player already well ahead of his peers in terms of recognition and on-field impact. The risk, as with all Rising Star betting, is that a second-half-of-season nominee emerges to challenge - the award has historically favoured players who peak in the back eight rounds of the season.
Smith received the first Rising Star nomination of the 2026 season - a significant honour that put him on the radar immediately. Round 1 nominees historically have mixed records in converting early recognition into the full award, as the panel often gravitates toward players who build their case across the season rather than peaking early. At $4 he is the second pick in the market and represents genuine each-way value. His ability to sustain the form that earned the Round 1 nod across the full home and away season will be the determining factor.
Trembath is our value selection at $5. A Round 4 nomination suggests he has arrived at the right time in the season - early enough to have built a case, but with the bulk of the year still ahead to cement his standing. The Rising Star award rewards players who show consistent development and impact across the season rather than a single brilliant performance, and a Round 4 nomination positions him well to continue building that narrative. At $5 with the full season ahead, he represents the best value in the top three.
Shanahan received the Round 2 nomination - the second of the season - and sits at $21 in the market. The gap between him and the top three likely reflects form after that nomination rather than the nomination itself. A player who receives an early nomination but then fades in subsequent weeks tends to slip in the award voting. At $21 he is a speculative selection for punters who believe the market has overcorrected on his chances.
Sam Grlj's Round 7 nomination is the most recent of any player in the market - a genuinely interesting feature. Late-season nominees can build momentum as the award voting intensifies in the second half of the year. At $18 he is priced to reflect significant upside if his form continues and he accumulates further nominations across the remaining rounds. For punters who like finding emerging value mid-market, Grlj is worth monitoring closely.
How the AFL Rising Star Works
The AFL Rising Star is awarded to the best first or second year player of the home and away season. Each week, the AFL nominates one player as the Rising Star nominee - typically a debutant or young player who produced an outstanding individual performance that round.
At the end of the home and away season, an AFL panel selects the winner from all weekly nominees. The panel considers overall season performance, not just the nominated game. A player can only win if they received at least one weekly nomination during the season.
Betting note: Players listed without a round nomination (e.g. Josh Lindsay, Zeke Uwland) are eligible to receive future weekly nominations and remain live chances. The market pricing on un-nominated players reflects their expected likelihood of receiving a late-season nomination and winning the award.
