AFL Tips · Round 11 · Sir Doug Nicholls Round
AFL Round 11 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
Short Answer
Nine games in Sir Doug Nicholls Round. Four underdog plays this week: Sydney +10.5, Adelaide +15.5, Richmond +12.5 and West Coast +43.5 where the lines don't match the projected margins. Fremantle at Optus, Brisbane at ENGIE and Port at Adelaide Oval are our favourite-side bets.
⚠ Late Mail - Confirmed Teams 21 May 2026
- 🚨Caleb Serong OUT (calf) - Fremantle's best midfielder misses Friday's clash vs St Kilda. 63-game streak ends. Corey Wagner in. Impacts Fremantle −25.5 line.
- 🚨Jacob Weitering OUT (calf) - Carlton's first-choice key defender misses Port Adelaide clash. Todd Marshall returns for Port. Port −9.5 case strengthened.
- →Geelong UNCHANGED - Cats name same side for the top-4 clash vs Sydney. Sydney +10.5 appeal holds - ladder leaders not expected to lose by more than 10.
- →Essendon 4 in: McKay, Gresham, Guelfi, T.Edwards. Peter Wright OUT (knee). Essendon −12.5 confirmed.
- →Collingwood 4 in: D.Moore, Lipinski, Pendlebury (433rd game), D.Cameron. Covers for WCE even more dominant.
Key Findings
- →Geelong $1.57 vs Sydney $2.41 at GMHBA - Cats unchanged but we're backing the Swans +10.5. Ladder leaders keeping it within 10 points away from home is our play.
- →Hawthorn $1.41 vs Adelaide $2.93 in Launceston - Teams confirmed. Chol & Nash back for Hawks. Thilthorpe & Ah Chee return for Crows.
- →Collingwood $1.08 vs West Coast $8.00 - Darcy Moore back, Pendlebury's 433rd game. Line sits at -43.5. Magpies at full strength.
- →Port Adelaide $1.56 vs Carlton $2.43 - Weitering OUT for Carlton (calf). Todd Marshall back for Port. Line strengthened.
Jake Morrison - AFL Tipster, PuntGuide · Round 11 · Sir Doug Nicholls Round · Thu 21 – Sun 24 May 2026 · Odds: BetRight
Sir Doug Nicholls Round 2026
The AFL honours First Nations peoples across all nine games this round. All teams wear specially designed First Nations guernseys. The round is named for Sir Doug Nicholls, a Yorta Yorta man, AFL pioneer and former Governor of South Australia.
Match of the Round
Geelong v Sydney - GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Our tip: Sydney +10.5 $1.92 · Ladder leaders to keep it within 10 points at GMHBA
← Round 10 Tips
ROUND 11 · SIR DOUG NICHOLLS · 21–24 MAY 2026
Round 12 coming →
All Round 11 Matches
Analysis
Hawthorn make four changes but -15.5 is a big number in Launceston. Adelaide are in form off a 68-point win and get Thilthorpe back. The margin projection doesn't support a 16-point gap - Crows to keep it closer than the line.
Key News
Hawks (4 in): Chol, Nash, B.Macdonald, Nairn (debut). Gunston still out.
Crows (2 in): Thilthorpe, Ah Chee. Walker fit but SANFL only.
Suggested Bets · Hawks $1.44 · Crows $2.65 · Line: Crows +15.5
Adelaide +15.5 $1.91In-form Crows · Thilthorpe back · Line too big · BetRight
Bet Now →Jai Newcombe 25+ disposalsHawks captain · 23.8 avg this season · Betr
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Analysis
Essendon are the better side but -12.5 is a stretch for a bottom-of-the-table derby at the MCG. Richmond are capable of keeping it scrappy. Tigers to stay within the margin.
Key News
Essendon (4 in): McKay, Gresham, Guelfi, T.Edwards. Wright OUT (knee).
Richmond (2 in): Lefau, Alger. Gray out injured.
Suggested Bets · Essendon $1.50 · Richmond $2.65 · Line: Richmond +12.5
Richmond +12.5 $1.90Bottom-of-table derby · Line too big · Tigers to keep it close · BetRight
Bet Now →Nate Caddy 2+ goalsEssendon key forward · 15 goals in 7 games · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Serong OUT ends a 63-game streak and is a genuine blow. Dockers are still 9-1 at Optus though and St Kilda travel poorly to Perth. We're staying on Fremantle but the line is more live than it was.
Key News
⚠ Late Mail - Serong OUT (calf). Wagner in. 63-game streak ends.
St Kilda: Wood back. Higgins still out (knee).
Suggested Bets · Freo $1.25 · St Kilda $4.00 · Line: Freo −25.5
Fremantle −25.5 $1.90Optus Stadium fortress · Serong out is key risk · BetRight
Bet Now →Josh Treacy 2+ goalsFremantle key forward · 19 goals in 8 games · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Gold Coast get two key players back and are the clear class side. North are 4-6 and in poor form at Marvel. Suns to cover - this shapes as a comfortable away win.
Key News
Suns (2 in): Long (ankle), Clohesy (back from suspension). Weller & Graham out.
North (1 in): Hardeman. Blamires omitted.
Suggested Bets · Suns $1.56 · North $2.43 · Line: Suns −10.5
Gold Coast −10.5 $1.91Long & Clohesy back · North poor form · BetRight
Bet Now →Christian Petracca 25+ disposalsSuns midfielder · 25.8 avg this season · Betr
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Analysis
3rd vs 1st at GMHBA. Geelong are unchanged and the home favourites, but Sydney are the best team in the competition at 9-1. The Swans are not going to lose this by 11+ points - ladder leaders to cover the spread away from home.
Key News
Geelong: UNCHANGED. Same 22 that won last week - but -10.5 is a big ask vs the competition's best side.
Sydney (2 in): Cleary (2nd game of 2026), Hanily. Cunningham & Cootee omitted.
Suggested Bets · Geelong $1.57 · Sydney $2.41 · Line: Sydney +10.5
Sydney +10.5 $1.92Ladder leaders · 9-1 season · Not expected to lose by 11+ · BetRight
Bet Now →Jeremy Cameron 3+ goalsGeelong key forward · 23 goals in 7 games · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Collingwood are the far superior side and will win comfortably, but 44 points is an enormous line to cover. West Coast can score enough to keep the margin under control - Eagles to stay within 43.
Key News
Pies (4 in): D.Moore, Lipinski, Pendlebury (433rd game), D.Cameron.
West Coast (1 in): B.Allan. Hutchinson out (hamstring).
Suggested Bets · Pies $1.08 · WCE $8.00 · Line: WCE +43.5
West Coast +43.5 $1.89Massive line to cover · Eagles to keep it under 44 · BetRight
Bet Now →Jamie Elliott 2+ goalsCollingwood forward · 13 goals in 8 games · Betr
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Analysis
Port get Marshall back and Carlton lose Weitering - their best key defender. Adelaide Oval away without your #1 key defender is a tough ask. Port to cover.
Key News
Port (3 in): Marshall, Wehr, Lai. Jones out (concussion).
⚠ Carlton: Weitering OUT (calf). Hollands also out (ankle).
Suggested Bets · Port $1.56 · Carlton $2.43 · Line: Port −9.5
Port Adelaide −9.5 $1.89Weitering OUT for Carlton · Marshall back for Port · BetRight
Bet Now →Jason Horne-Francis 20+ disposalsPort mid-forward · 21.5 avg this season · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Brisbane get Gallop back but lose Lester and Zorko remains out. GWS can be a handful at ENGIE but Brisbane's class should prevail. Lions to cover away from home.
Key News
Lions (5 in): Gallop, Beecken, Zakostelsky, McLachlan, Brain. Lester OUT (calf). Zorko still out.
GWS (4 in): Buckley, C.Brown, C.Stone, Hannaford.
Suggested Bets · Brisbane $1.47 · GWS $2.75 · Line: Brisbane −14.5
Brisbane −14.5 $1.90Gallop returns · Brisbane $1.47 H2H · BetRight
Bet Now →Lachie Neale 30+ disposalsBrisbane captain · 28.6 avg this season · Betr
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Analysis
Treloar returning makes this our tightest line of the round. Melbourne are the better side but the Dogs at Marvel with their best midfielder back is a genuine contest. Dees by a nose.
Key News
Dogs (5 in): Treloar (key return), L.Cleary, O'Donnell, Jaques, Croft.
Melbourne (3 in): Windsor, Henderson, Moniz-Wakefield.
Suggested Bets · Dees $1.73 · Dogs $2.10 · Line: Dees −4.5
Melbourne −4.5 $1.90Dees $1.73 H2H · Treloar back - tight line · BetRight
Bet Now →Aaron Naughton 2+ goalsBulldogs key forward · 21 goals in 8 games · Betr
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