NRL Tips · Round 12 · 21–24 May 2026
NRL Round 12 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
Short Answer
Five games across four days. Boyd ACL confirmed, Metcalf out, Latrell Mitchell ruled out for Souths. Warriors -12.5 vs the 0-10 Dragons is the standout line of the round. Cowboys at home against a Latrell-less Souths is the marquee play. Individual game analysis pages below.
Key Findings
- →Latrell Mitchell OUT (back) for Rabbitohs - Cowboys at home now clear favourites. Cowboys -2.5 $1.90.
- →Boyd ACL confirmed, Metcalf omitted - Te Maire Martin takes the Warriors halves spot vs 0-10 Dragons. Warriors -12.5 $1.91.
- →Koula & Olakau'atu OUT for Sea Eagles (Origin) - Fogarty returns. Sea Eagles -13.5 $1.89 vs Titans (0-4 form).
- →Farnworth OUT (hamstring) - Nikorima also out, HTF in Maroons camp. Line flipped: now Raiders −2.5. Taking Dolphins +2.5 $1.90 for the value start.
PuntGuide Editorial · Round 12 · Thu 21 – Sun 24 May 2026 · Odds: BetRight
⚡ Key Team News - Round 12
Tanah Boyd (Warriors) - ACL confirmed, season over. Te Maire Martin starts at halfback. Luke Metcalf omitted (contract saga with Dragons).
Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) - OUT with back injury. Most sold SuperCoach player. Tallis Duncan moves to centre.
Koula & Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) - Both unavailable (Origin). Clayton Faulalo covers at fullback. Fogarty returns at halfback.
Hudson Young (Raiders) - Unavailable (Origin). Papali'i also out (injury). Tapine, Hosking, Horsburgh all named. Xavier Savage returns.
Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) - LATE OUT - Hamstring tightness. Keeley to centre, Fuller at fullback, Schneider starts at 5/8. Nikorima also out (hamstring). Line flips to Raiders −2.5.
Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) - Returns from knee injury. Crichton out (Origin). Jonathan Sua retains wing spot.
Heilum Luki & Tom Chester (Cowboys) - Both missed Origin, both play. Jason Taumalolo captains North Queensland.
Match of the Round
Cowboys v Rabbitohs - Townsville, Sunday 4:05pm
Our tip: Cowboys −2.5 $1.90 · Latrell Mitchell OUT - Cowboys full strength at home with Taumalolo
All Round 12 Matches
Analysis
Late mail changes everything. Farnworth ruled out (hamstring), Nikorima also out, Tabuai-Fidow in Maroons camp. Line has shifted from Dolphins −0.5 to Raiders −2.5. We're taking Dolphins +2.5 at $1.90 - the value start acknowledges their outs while Kaufusi, Knowles and the forward pack remain intact. Raiders are still missing Young and Papali'i.
Odds & Form
Raiders: 12th, 10pts, 4-6 · Dolphins: 8th, 12pts, 5-5. Raiders −2.5 $1.90 · Dolphins +2.5 $1.90. Line has flipped 3 points on the Farnworth/Nikorima late outs. Isaako ($1.84) our try scorer pick.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 - Dolphins +2.5 $1.90Value start after Farnworth & Nikorima ruled out · Sportsbet
Bet Now →Bet 2 - Jamayne Isaako anytime try scorer $1.84Dolphins winger · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Bulldogs are $1.73 H2H favourites but they're on a five-game losing run and Crichton is out through Origin. Storm at $2.11 have been improving - 4-7 overall but trending upward with Jahrome Hughes in control. Taking Storm for the win: the market slightly overrates a Bulldogs side going this badly. Faalogo is a high-energy fullback who is always a try threat.
Odds & Form
Bulldogs: 14th, 8pts, 3-7, form 0-5 · Storm: 13th, 8pts, 4-7, form 2-3. Storm ML $2.11, Storm +1.5 $1.98. Bulldogs haven't won in five - hard to back them even at home when Storm are clearly on the way back up.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 - Melbourne Storm ML $2.11Bulldogs 0-5 form · Storm improving under Hughes · BetRight
Bet Now →Bet 2 - Sualauvi Faalogo anytime try scorerStorm fullback · High-energy · Betr
Props →
Analysis
The clearest result of Round 12. Dragons are 0-10 with Kyle Flanagan and Daniel Atkinson in the halves after Metcalf's omission and Reed's injury. Warriors are 2nd on the ladder, 4-0 in form, with Te Maire Martin stepping in for Boyd at halfback - and he played well in the Magic Round win over the Broncos. Warriors to win big.
Odds & Form
Dragons: 17th, 2pts, 0-10, -207 diff · Warriors: 2nd, 18pts, 8-2, +138 diff. Dragons +12.5 $1.89, Warriors -12.5 $1.91. This is the standout line of the round. Jackson Ford starts at prop for the Warriors - a huge ball-runner.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 - Warriors −12.5 $1.91Warriors 2nd vs 0-10 Dragons · Metcalf out · BetRight
Bet Now →Bet 2 - Dallin Watene-Zelezniak anytime try scorerWarriors wing · Experienced try scorer · Betr
Props →
Analysis
Sea Eagles lose Koula and Olakau'atu to Origin but remain strong. Fogarty returning at halfback is a major plus, and the Trbojevic brothers anchor the pack. Titans are 16th with 0-4 form and have been leaking tries. Manly at 4 Pines Park is one of the most reliable bet-to-cover situations in NRL - the 13.5-point line is achievable.
Odds & Form
Sea Eagles: 4th, 14pts, 6-4, form 4-1 · Titans: 16th, 6pts, 2-8, form 0-4. Sea Eagles -13.5 $1.89, Titans +13.5 $1.91. Faulalo covers at fullback for Koula. Manly's backline with Saab and Garrick is class against a leaky Titans defence.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 - Titans +13.5 $1.91Titans to keep it within 13.5 · Fotuaika up front · BetRight
Bet Now →Bet 2 - Phillip Sami anytime try scorerTitans wing · Betr
Props →
Analysis
The marquee clash gets significantly clearer with Latrell Mitchell's back injury ruling him out of both Origin and this game. Cowboys are at home in Townsville with a full-strength squad - Taumalolo, Luki and Chester all available having missed Origin. Souths still have Walker and Ward but losing Latrell strips them of their most dangerous attacking weapon.
Odds & Form
Cowboys: 7th, 14pts, 7-4, form 3-2 · Rabbitohs: 5th, 14pts, 6-4, form 3-2. Cowboys -2.5 $1.90, Rabbitohs +2.5 $1.90. Both on 14 points but Latrell's absence shifts the balance clearly. QCB Stadium in Townsville is a graveyard for away sides.
Suggested Bets
Bet 1 - Cowboys −2.5 $1.90Latrell Mitchell OUT · Cowboys full strength at home · BetRight
Bet Now →Bet 2 - Scott Drinkwater anytime try scorerCowboys fullback · Betr
Props →
Round 12 Byes (7 Teams)
Penrith PanthersSydney RoostersNewcastle KnightsCronulla SharksWests TigersBrisbane BroncosParramatta Eels
Coming Up - 17 June
State of Origin Game 2 - QLD vs NSW, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
NSW lead 1–0. Ponga suspended? Strange keeps the 6 or Moses returns? Series on the line for Queensland. NSW $1.78 H2H.
Game 2 Preview →
