South Africa are the defending back-to-back champions. Australia are the hosts. And Ireland still haven’t won one. Here’s our complete breakdown of every genuine contender for the Webb Ellis Cup in Australia, 2027.
The 2027 Rugby World Cup is being billed as the biggest tournament in the history of the sport. Twenty-four nations will battle across six weeks in Australia for the Webb Ellis Cup, from 1 October to 13 November 2027. South Africa arrive as four-time champions and back-to-back title holders. New Zealand are always dangerous. France have a generation. And Australia, as hosts, have a nation behind them. But as rugby always reminds us: the results don’t always follow the script.
The switch from four pools of five to six pools of four is the most significant structural change in the World Cup’s history. Despite adding four extra teams to the field, each side plays one fewer pool match (three instead of four), keeping the total game count for a finalist at seven — identical to 2023. The introduction of the Round of 16 adds a new jeopardy element: third-placed teams who accumulate enough points can qualify, but the best third-place runners will face a knockout match against a group winner. There are no more easy rides through the pool stage.
The four best third-placed teams will be ranked by competition points, then points difference, then try difference. This means pool composition and draw luck matter more than ever — and winning your group outright remains the priority.
The Springboks are the dominant force in world rugby and the bookmakers’ clear first pick to claim a fifth title. South Africa won in 2019 and 2023 — back-to-back, something no team has achieved since Australia in the early 1990s — and are now hunting a three-peat that would place them alongside the All Blacks of the 1980s as the sport’s most dominant World Cup dynasty.
Their formula is well understood: suffocating defence, world-class set piece, and the ability to extract points from anywhere through their kicking game. Rassie Erasmus’s system tolerates little ego — replacements are used as weapons, and depth across the squad is unmatched. By 2027, a new generation of Springboks will be emerging to complement the veterans, and South Africa’s player pool remains the widest in the Southern Hemisphere.
$3.75 is fair, perhaps generous. If you believe the Springbok system is the blueprint for winning rugby World Cups — and two consecutive titles suggest it is — this is the selection.
No team has a World Cup record to match New Zealand. Three titles, three consecutive finals appearances between 2011–2015, and the singular distinction of never having failed to reach the semi-finals in ten tournaments. They lost the 2023 final to South Africa in Paris and will arrive at the 2027 tournament with a renewed appetite and a generation of talent motivated by that defeat.
The All Blacks refresh well. New coaches emerge, new systems adapt, and the talent pipeline from the Super Rugby competitions continues to produce world-class players. Whatever squad New Zealand field in 2027, it will be well-drilled and dangerous. History says don’t bet against them.
$4.50 is a legitimate alternative to South Africa and slightly better value given the All Blacks’ track record of bouncing back from World Cup disappointment.
Les Bleus might be the most exciting team in world rugby right now. Antoine Dupont is arguably the best player on the planet. The French backs are brilliant, their forwards powerful, and back-to-back Six Nations titles have reinforced their status as a genuine heavyweight. The tragedy is what happened in 2023: exiting in the quarterfinals on home soil, under extraordinary pressure, in a game that hinged on a disputed officiating decision.
That scar will take time to heal — and the motivation it provides will be enormous. By 2027, the core of this French generation will be in their prime: experienced enough to handle the pressure of a knockout World Cup but not yet over the hill. France at $5.00 represents serious competition value.
The caveat: France have been in three finals and six semi-finals in World Cup history without winning. The choker tag exists. In Australia, away from home, under pressure — can they finally do it? That’s the bet.
Ireland are the great paradox of international rugby. Consistently ranked number one in the world, consistently brilliant in autumn internationals and Six Nations campaigns, and consistently eliminated at the quarter-finals of every Rugby World Cup they’ve entered — all ten of them. The question is no longer whether Ireland are good enough to win a World Cup. The question is whether they can translate consistent brilliance into knockout performance under genuine pressure.
Cilliers compared Ireland to the South African cricket Proteas — a team with enormous talent that has historically underperformed on the biggest stage. Whether that changes in 2027 is the defining narrative of Irish rugby’s golden generation. If they break the curse, $6.00 will look exceptional in hindsight.
England are the only Northern Hemisphere team to have won the Rugby World Cup, doing so in 2003 in Australia — a fact that carries enormous historical resonance ahead of 2027. A young English squad is developing well, with a physical forward pack and a competitive back line taking shape. By 2027, that squad will be peaking.
Cilliers specifically named England as one of his top six contenders: “England can also be there.” England have the player depth to compete with the Southern Hemisphere giants — a quality Cilliers identified as critical: “The Springboks, All Blacks, us and England have a lot of depth and a bigger pool of players. That is very important.”
Each-way play at $6.50 — England reaching the semi-finals is a legitimate expectation, and if they hit form at the right moment, they’ve shown they can go all the way.
For Australian punters, this is the bet. The Wallabies host the Rugby World Cup for the first time since 2003 — when England won — and arrive with an enormous opportunity to channel the passionate home support that Australian sport generates at its best. The precedent is clear: with the exception of England in 2015, every host nation in Rugby World Cup history has reached at least the semi-finals. Several have won it outright.
Australia won the Webb Ellis Cup in 1991 and 1999. They know what winning looks like. The current Wallabies squad is in a rebuilding phase, and the road to 2027 will involve significant development. But the gap between “not shooting out the lights” now and being genuine contenders in October 2027 can close quickly with the right coaching and player development.
Cilliers acknowledged the home advantage directly: “They are at home. Maybe they can improve with a better coach.” The key variables — coaching appointment, player recruitment, development of emerging talent — will define how competitive the Wallabies are. But at $9.00, you’re being well paid to bet on home advantage in a sport where home advantage is historically decisive.
Our recommendation: Australia $9.00 each-way. Best value in the entire market for an Australian audience.
The Pumas reached the semi-finals of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, their best-ever result, and represent a genuine dark horse at $18.00. Argentina has been developing a strong domestic competition and a broader player pool, and the current generation — combining powerful forward play with increasingly dynamic backs — is the best the Pumas have ever produced. Cilliers flagged them specifically: “And Argentina” among his list of top six contenders.
$18.00 is a long price but not an absurd one for a team that has proven it can beat anyone on a given day.
Scotland ($26.00), Fiji ($51.00), Wales ($61.00) and Italy ($81.00) complete the credible long-shot tier. Scotland are consistent without delivering the knockout results their talent suggests. Fiji are devastating in open play and genuinely dangerous on a good day. Wales are rebuilding post-2023. Italy have improved substantially and, with the right draw, could cause problems.
The 24-team format and Round of 16 introduces more opportunities for upsets. A third-placed team qualifying as one of the four best runners-up could face a pool winner in the Round of 16 — and those upsets will happen. Japan ($251.00) shocked the world in 2019 on home soil. The format is designed to create moments.
Vlok Cilliers, kicking coach for France and a respected voice within the Springboks camp, offered his assessment of the contenders for 2027 when asked to identify the teams he expects to be in the mix at the business end of the tournament:
Cilliers notably did not include South Africa in his verbal list — though as the Springbok kicking coach, he noted the Boks would be his implied first pick. He also offered a candid assessment of Australia, saying they’re “not shooting out the lights” at this stage but noting pointedly: “They are at home.”
His observation on what separates contenders from the field is worth noting: “If teams can find that balance between the senior and younger players, while you need to have depth and cover for injuries — the Springboks, All Blacks, us and England have a lot of depth and a bigger pool of players. That is very important.”
Picking a Rugby World Cup winner 16+ months out is an exercise in conviction, not precision. But if you’re building a betting portfolio for the 2027 tournament, here’s how we’d approach it:
🇦🇺 Australia $9.00 — The standout value bet for an Australian audience. Home advantage is real in rugby. Each-way at 2 places, 1/3 odds.
🇮🇪 Ireland $6.00 — If they break the quarterfinal curse. Their consistent ranking says they’re good enough.
🏴 England $6.50 — Young squad peaking at the right time. Each-way solid.
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