NRL Round 16 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets

Friday night at McDonald Jones and the Knights get one of their biggest ins of the season — Bradman Best returns from a five-week hamstring layoff in the centres. Origin reps Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Lucas are named to back up after Game 2 and will be monitored on Thursday. Thomas Cant starts in the second row in place of the suspended Jermaine McEwen. The Dragons travel up the M1 missing Jaydn Su'A (pectoral) — Luciano Leilua is recalled from NSW Cup to fill the gap with Emre Guler also back. Knights at $1.25 H2H tells the story — -12.5 is still the right side with Ponga, Lucas and Best all returning.

Knights -12.5 $1.90. Dragons are 17th on the ladder and their forward pack takes another hit with Su'A out. Newcastle have key strike weapons back — Ponga and Best in the same backline for the first time since April. The market makes Newcastle $1.25 to win and 12.5 still looks gettable on this depleted Dragons side.

Saturday afternoon at Campbelltown and the Tigers welcome back skipper Api Koroisau from Origin duty with Adam Doueihi (shoulder) named in the extended squad chasing his first game since Round 9. Tony Sukkar comes into the starting pack for Kai Pearce-Paul (pectoral). The Dolphins arrive in the same shape that beat the Roosters — Kristian Woolf has kept the squad intact. Origin reps Max Plath and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki are listed among the reserves while Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo and Flegler are rested entirely. The market has Dolphins at $1.40 H2H — a fresh continuity squad against an injury-disrupted Tigers, -7.5 looks fair.

Dolphins -7.5 $1.82. Dolphins on a strong run, Tigers struggling at 10th on the ladder. Woolf's continuity selection is the angle — the same group that demolished the Roosters returns.

Twilight on the Gold Coast and the Panthers travel north listing Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Brian To'o all on the reserves bench to be monitored post-Origin 2. Jack Cogger steps into halfback if Cleary is rested, Lindsay Smith slides to lock should Yeo fail to come up. Casey McLean (quad) is sidelined so Luke Garner and Izack Tago are the new centres with Paul Alamoti out to the wing. Even with all that disruption, Penrith bring a four-man Origin-replacement bench (Billy Phillips, Luron Patea, Jack Cole, Sione Fonua) that most clubs would put in their starting 13. Titans have Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Jojo Fifita named to back up but Lachlan Ilias' return at #14 doesn't lift the spine enough to keep this close. Panthers at $1.23 H2H — the market expects a comfortable cover even at -12.5.

Panthers -12.5 $1.91. Titans 16th on the ladder. Even with Cleary rested, Penrith's roster depth is in a different class. The reigning premiers $1.23 to win is its own statement.

The headline match of the round — Tom Trbojevic returns at fullback after seven games out with a hamstring injury. Clayton Faulalo did a great job covering but suffered his own hamstring strain in Round 14. Tolu Koula returns from Origin to play Saturday night. Ethan Bullemor is also back on the bench after a Round 14 head knock. The Bulldogs have Stephen Crichton playing despite the shoulder issue that kept him out of Origin 2, with Kurt Mann (ear) returning at hooker. Logan Spinks is named for potential NRL debut after 29 NSW Cup games over three seasons. With Turbo back at the back, Manly's spine outclasses the Bulldogs — the market shows Sea Eagles $1.38 H2H, meaning -7.5 is fair.

Sea Eagles -7.5 $1.82. Tom Trbojevic returning is one of the in-game story lines of the season. Manly are 4th on the ladder; Bulldogs are 13th. The away side is the right play.

Sunday afternoon in Christchurch and the Warriors get Mitch Barnett (NSW) and Kurt Capewell (Qld) back to back up from Origin 2. Skipper James Fisher-Harris (calf) and Leka Halasima (hamstring) remain out, but hooker Sam Healey returns from a thumb injury and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad takes the wing for Khan-Pereira (quad). Luke Metcalf and Rocco Berry are recalled. The Cowboys have Jeremiah Nanai back for his first game since Round 9 and Braidon Burns returning from a hamstring. John Bateman could feature for his first NRL game of the year after wrist surgery rehab. Warriors $1.36 H2H makes the -9.5 line a fair reflection of class + home advantage.

Warriors -9.5 $1.90. One NZ Stadium has been a fortress and the Warriors get their key Origin reps back. Cowboys with a long travel and their own injury list is a tough ask.

Sunday afternoon at AAMI and Bellamy gets the Maroons trio of Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero back at home with no travel needed after Origin 2. Jack Howarth (quad) returns to the centres and utility Tyran Wishart (ankle) is back on the bench — Waitere and Tuimalatu-Brown make way. The Raiders include Blues Origin stars Ethan Strange and Hudson Young in the starting line-up, with Tamale back from concussion. Josh Papalii (calf) and Simi Sasagi (shoulder) remain sidelined. Storm $1.38 H2H makes the -8.5 a fair reflection of class + home edge with Munster, Grant and Hughes operating together.

Storm -8.5 $1.91. Munster, Grant and Loiero backing up at home. Raiders' pack missing Papalii is the weak point. Back the home favourites.