Sunday 31 May 2026 · 6:15 PM AEST · CommBank Stadium
Warriors +4.5 $1.90 · Thomas Jenkins anytime try scorer
Published 26 May 2026 · Odds: Sportsbet · 18+
Odds from Sportsbet. Always confirm current prices before placing.
Ivan Cleary has named Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Casey McLean and Brian To'o in the reserves (positions 21–24). Final call on their fitness will be made after Wednesday's Origin Game 1. If Cleary doesn't back up, Jack Cogger plays halfback; if Yeo rests, Lindsay Smith lines up at lock. Liam Martin RETURNS from a knee injury — one Panthers positive.
This is the most consequential team-news game of the season so far. Ivan Cleary has parked all four of Penrith's Origin representatives in the reserves (positions 21–24) — Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Casey McLean and Brian To'o. He'll monitor them through Wednesday night's Origin Game 1 and make a final call on backups based on minutes and impact. Star back-rower Liam Martin returns from a knee injury in the starting side — that's the one Panthers positive. Izack Tago and Luke Garner have been named in the centres; Jack Cogger is the contingency halfback if Cleary doesn't play, with Lindsay Smith at lock if Yeo rests.
The Warriors lose Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to a season-ending ACL injury — a brutal blow. Adam Pompey shifts into the centres, with Marata Niukore added to the bench in place of Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (concussion). Dragons-bound playmaker Luke Metcalf is listed among the reserves as he chases a first NRL appearance since Round 5. Taine Tuaupiki keeps the fullback jumper, James Fisher-Harris anchors the pack, and Chanel Harris-Tavita partners Te Maire Martin in the halves.
The market sets Panthers as $1.57 favourites and −4.5 spread, which is a strong line for what may end up being a heavily rotated Penrith side. If Cleary and Yeo don't back up — which is the most likely scenario after a tough Origin opener — the Panthers are not 4.5-point favourites at home in this fixture. The Warriors have lost three of their last four but they're better than the market is pricing them given the news. Take the +4.5. Margin 1–12 for Panthers ($3.00) is the cleanest alternate angle if you want a price upgrade on a Panthers win-but-tight outcome.
Panthers: Cleary, Yeo, McLean & To'o in reserves (Origin fitness call post-Wednesday). Liam Martin RETURNS from knee. Jack Cogger contingency halfback. Lindsay Smith at lock if Yeo rested. Warriors: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck OUT (season-ending ACL). Adam Pompey to centres. Marata Niukore added to bench (replaces Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, concussion). Luke Metcalf listed on reserves chasing first NRL appearance since Round 5.
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